All eyes on jobs data as marker of economic health

The monthly check-up on the jobs market may show signs of cooling as higher interest rates work to take heat out of the economy. 

The labour market has proved remarkably resilient to a higher interest rate environment and a less enthusiastic consumer.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics' September labour force report, scheduled for release on Thursday, could show the unemployment rate moving a tad higher.

The jobless rate has been edging higher but remains extremely low compared to historical averages, holding at 3.7 per cent in July and August.

CommSec economist Craig James said unemployment will likely tick up to 3.8 per cent in September, with the 25,000 jobs the bank expects to see added to the economy not enough to keep the jobless rate stable. 

Looking ahead, the labour market is expected to weaken as a consequence of 12 interest rate hikes from the central bank, with forward-looking indicators such as job ads and vacancies signalling a gradual slowdown. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia sees the unemployment rate moving up to 4.5 per cent by mid-2025.

The reasoning behind the October cash rate call - another month on hold at 4.1 per cent - will also be revealed this week. 

The minutes from the first meeting under the leadership of the new governor, Michele Bullock, is likely to discuss both a pause and hike option. 

The central bank has been on pause for the past four months as it assesses the impact of its tightening so far on the economy.

The series of interest rate hikes already fired off are intended to bring down easing but still-high inflation.

Public appearances from senior RBA officials may also be worth watching. 

Assistant governor Brad Jones is due to deliver a speech at the Australian Financial Review’s cryptocurrency summit on Monday.

On Wednesday, Ms Bullock is due to appear at the AFSA annual summit panel, and Penelope Smith, head of the international department, is scheduled to speak at the CFA Societies Australia investment conference.

On Wall Street the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed lower on Friday as deteriorating consumer sentiment data and the Middle East conflict soured investors on riskier bets and overshadowed upbeat quarterly earnings from some of the largest US banks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 39.15 points, or 0.12 per cent, to 33,670.29, the S&P 500 lost 21.83 points, or 0.50 per cent, at 4,327.78 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 166.99 points, or 1.23 per cent, to 13,407.23.

Australian futures fell 30 points to 7045.

In Australia the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished 40 points lower at 7,051.0, a 0.56 per cent drop. The broader All Ordinaries fell 43.9 points, or 0.6 per cent, to 7,243.5.

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