The coalition has edged ahead of Labor in the battleground state of NSW but the government is holding its popularity in key states Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.
The opposition has its strongest showing in Queensland, 54 to 46 on a two-party preferred count, according to a new poll conducted for The Australian and published in the paper on Monday.
It is at near saturation in the Sunshine State, with Labor only holding five of about 30 seats, yet now commands a slim 51-49 lead in NSW, the poll shows.
Support for Labor remains strong in South Australia (53-47) and Victoria (54-46).
Overall, Labor is ahead of the coalition 51 per cent to 49.
NSW Nationals senator Ross Cadell said the shift away from Labor in his state was because "people want action, they don't want words".
"They want to see prices getting cheaper, they want to see affordability, they want to see the changes Labor's been spruiking meaning something to them and it's not happening," he told Sky News.
"It's not happening in regional Australia, it's not happening in NSW and even the other states are coming to a far closer election than they thought they would be.
"People are getting angry now".
Cabinet minister Amanda Rishworth said she didn't spend time dissecting every poll.
"We're getting on with the job - we've got tax cuts flowing that are supporting low and middle-income earners, we've got the energy bill relief," she told Nine's Today Show.
"It is easy to get a headline, what people want to see however is thoughtful, careful policy and that's not what they're seeing from the opposition."
In the primary vote stakes, Labor is losing support among younger voters to the Greens, the analysis shows.
"It's getting harder and harder to tell Labor and Liberal apart and we've got really strong policies and plans around things like climate action, no new coal and gas mines," Greens senator Nick McKim said.
Not enough cost-of-living support and the government not being strong on the war in Gaza was also alienating voters, he said.
"Those messages are resonating and we understand that," he said.
Federal MPs are on a winter break and the poll shows Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has 48 per cent approval compared to Opposition Leader Peter Dutton's 36 per cent.
However Mr Dutton is leading Mr Albanese as preferred prime minister in his home state of Queensland for the first time.
The next federal election is due by May 2025.
The analysis was based on Newspoll surveys with almost 5000 voters across Australia between April and June.
