Australia could continue to feel the tail effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for years as more people die because of the virus and its impacts.
Some 8400 more people died in 2023 than would have been expected under pre-pandemic conditions, an Actuaries Institute report, released on Monday, found.
The figure was down from the 20,000 "excess" deaths recorded in 2022.
Of the extra deaths logged in 2023, 4600 were directly because of COVID-19 while another 1500 were linked to the virus.
The institute's mortality working group said the substantial drop in excess deaths between the two years had not prevented the 2023 rate sitting higher than it had during bad flu years before the pandemic.
“We think COVID-19 is likely to cause some excess mortality for several years to come, either as a direct cause of death or a contributing factor to other causes such as heart disease,” actuary Karen Cutter said.
“In our view, the ‘new normal’ level of mortality is likely to be higher than it would have been if we hadn't had the pandemic.”
A higher death rate could remain as things such as vaccination rates and jabs' efficacy continued to be managed, Australian National University epidemiology lecturer Rezanur Rahaman said.
“It could be said that the excess deaths will continue for some time as it is a highly contagious respiratory pathogen that will not die out anytime soon,” he told AAP.
But University of Technology Sydney bio-statistics professor Andrew Hayen noted the report found the age-standardised death rate in 2023 was almost the same as in 2019.
“We’ve already witnessed a considerable decline in excess deaths as measured by the Actuaries Institute (and) we are likely to see a continued decline in mortality, particularly due to COVID,” he said.
It was difficult to attribute deaths specifically to post-COVID effects, rather than reduced health care during the pandemic, Professor Hayen said.
“Many of the deaths in 2022 were probably due to mortality displacement and there may also be issues relating to pressures on emergency services and delays in standard care, like elective surgery rates,” he said.
“However, it’s not possible to attribute exactly what proportion is attributable to putative causes.”
Comparing Australia’s experience with 40 other countries, the actuaries' report found the local excess death rate of five per cent between 2020 and 2023 was low by global standards, which averaged 11 per cent.
