Voters in the Victorian electorate of Dunkley will head to the polls in March, as the federal government faces its first major test of public opinion in 2024.
The date for the by-election for the seat on the Mornington Peninsula has been set for March 2.
The by-election was triggered by the death of MP Peta Murphy in December, following a long battle with cancer.
Labor has announced community leader Jodie Belyea as its candidate, while the coalition has preselected Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy.
Voters in the electorate will have until February 5 to update their details with the Australian Electoral Commission.
Labor had held Dunkley since 2019, with Ms Murphy recording a more than 3.5 per cent swing at the last federal election to hold the electorate by a 6.2 per cent margin.
However, the standard trend of a four to five per swing against a government at a by-election is expected to see the upcoming poll tightly contested by the major parties.
It will be the third by-election of the current term of federal parliament, following polls in 2022 in the Melbourne seat of Aston and the Gold Coast electorate of Fadden.
Senior political lecturer at Deakin University Geoffrey Robinson said Dunkley was looming as a close fight at the ballot box.
While the political circumstances have changed since the government won a seat from the opposition in Aston, Dr Robinson said Victoria was still strong ground for Labor.
"It's true Peter Dutton doesn't have tremendous appeal to Victorian voters, and the result in Aston was an example of that," he told AAP.
"Obviously there's been a lot of political water under the bridge since Aston and the government is out of its honeymoon position but it's not a crisis position.
"It's an uphill challenge for Labor but not impossible."
While election trends indicate a tight contest, Dr Robinson said the most likely outcome was the government holding on to the seat with a smaller margin.
He said sentimentality in the electorate following Ms Murphy's death was unlikely to be a factor with voters.
"Voters tend to be unsentimental. Peta Murphy was a popular MP but she's not on the ballot and that personal vote is lost," he said.
