Australia's existing gas and new sources need to be available to households, industry and the power grid until Australia electrifies, a market watchdog says.
"We continue to hold concerns about the longer-term outlook, particularly the shortfall in the southern states," the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's gas tsar Anna Brakey told the industry on Wednesday.
"It is therefore critical that new projects are brought online, and the LNG producers commit sufficient gas to our domestic market," she warned.
The mandatory code of conduct for the industry was supporting long-term supply and compliance would be closely monitored, Ms Brakey said.
The supply-demand outlook on the east coast was less precarious than a year ago and there would be "more competitive pricing for domestic gas users over time" with global prices trending down.
On the east coast, the short-term outlook was helped by a reduction in overall forecast domestic demand for the year from additional renewable energy capacity and less demand for gas-powered generation, Ms Brakey said.
There are also approximately 560 petajoules of additional gas committed to the domestic market through the code's ministerial exemptions framework.
Longer-term the east coast market was expected to have enough supply to meet demand until 2028, followed by increasing shortfalls.
"Gas will play a critical role over the next two decades in maintaining power grid security, supplying commercial and industrial customers, and powering households until the residential sector is electrified," Ms Brakey said.
"Concerningly, the current gas supply outlook includes undeveloped reserves, which in some cases are yet to receive investment approval and the necessary regulatory approvals to begin production."
Delays or ending these projects could result in a worse supply outlook, she told the annual Australian Domestic Gas Outlook summit.
Andrew Richards, chief executive of the Energy Users Association of Australia, accused the Victorian government of a decade-long "jihad on gas" that was delaying the closure of coal-fired power stations.
The state's gas connection prohibition for new homes took effect on January 1, and a ban on fracking was enshrined in the state's constitution in 2021 in response to farmers and regional communities.
Stephen Harty, head of Santos' gas operations in Gladstone, said the new industry code of conduct, heads of agreement on supply, and Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism were "bandaid solutions".
He said the Narrabri project in NSW should be on and producing 70 petajoules a year for the domestic market, instead supply has "gone backwards" as the federal court allowed a challenge to a native title tribunal decision.
Coinciding with the conference, the Lock the Gate Alliance launched an interactive analysis that shows NSW households could collectively save more than $1 billion from switching from gas to electricity.
"NSW risks being left behind as Victoria and the ACT lead the push to an all-electric future," report author Tom Quinn from Springmount Advisory said.
Meanwhile, prominent Australians urged Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek to save sacred sites they say are at risk from Woodside's plans to expand a gas export hub in Western Australia.
Gas producers have called for a reset of state and federal energy policy settings to secure the nation's future energy supply as households and businesses face higher energy prices and increased risks of blackouts and gas shortages.
Samantha McCulloch, chief executive of the industry body Australian Energy Producers, said a credible strategy must recognise the critical, long-term role of gas in achieving net zero by 2050, with new gas for domestic use and international customers.
The "growing disconnect" between the realities and politics of the energy debate were putting energy security, energy affordability and Australia's pathway to net-zero emissions at risk, she said.
Price controls imposed on the east coast gas market should not be a permanent fixture, because they have been a handbrake on investment in new supply, she said.
