Green shoots for consumer mood burnt by cost-of-living

The economic clouds are finally starting to part for Australian consumers, as the likelihood of more interest rate hikes fades and tax relief boosts bank balances. 

The high cost of living and relentless mortgage repayment pressure has weighed heavily on measures of consumer confidence.

These pain points will still drag on Tuesday's index from Westpac and Melbourne Institute for September yet tax cuts and government cost-of-living help may tug the indicator in the other direction.

Stage three tax cuts started on July 1, supporting family finances.

Power bill rebates have also been taking pressure off household budgets in some parts of the country.

August's consumer confidence reading was still weak by historical standards, although when the Reserve Bank Australia left interest rates unchanged at the last board meeting tax cuts helped buoy views on family finances.

While the chance of more interest rate hikes is low, consumers will be waiting a while for cuts as the central bank remains committed to tackling inflation.

Governor Michele Bullock
Central bank governor Michele Bullock last week pushed back on expectations of rate cuts this year.

Another bellwether for future economic activity, National Australia Bank's August business survey, is scheduled for release on the same day.

Economic headwinds have also been weighing on the business community, though conditions improved in July for the first time in five months.

Tuesday will also see the Australian Bureau of Statistics release June quarter data on the value and number of homes.

Overseas arrivals and departures data is due from the bureau on Wednesday.

RBA assistant governor (economic) Sarah Hunter is scheduled to speak on the same day at the Barrenjoey Economic Forum in Sydney.

Insights into the actual spending habits of consumers will be on display on Thursday as Commonwealth Bank releases its monthly spending indicator.

Meanwhile, Wall Street ended weaker on Friday after a US jobs report pointed to continuing weakness in the labour market, undermining the broader outlook for the economy.

US Labor Department data showed US employers added 142,000 jobs in August, a little below analyst expectations, while jobs growth for July was revised down to 89,000, also below estimates.

The report reinforces the likelihood the US Federal Reserve will cut rates later this month but also suggests it could be too late for the economy to achieve a soft landing.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 410.34 points, or 1.01 per cent, to 40,345.41, the S&P 500 lost 94.99 points, or 1.73 per cent, to 5,408.42 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 436.83 points, or 2.55 per cent, to 16,690.83.

The Australian stock exchange is likely to fall in sympathy when trading resumes on Monday, after the main ASX/SPI200 futures contract fell 102 points to 7883 points on the weekend.

On Friday, the local benchmark S&P/ASX200 index rose 31 points to end at 8,013.4, while the broader All Ordinaries gained 27.1 points to 8,214.8.

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