Early rate-cut hopes alive as core inflation eases

Encouraging monthly inflation numbers have been tempered by an increase in job vacancies. (Diego Fedele/AAP PHOTOS)

Mortgage-holders and a prime minister in election mode are hoping an encouraging step down in underlying inflation will pave the way for a February interest rate cut.

Economists were generally heartened by official monthly inflation numbers, though the first increase in job vacancies in more than two-and-a-half years could be a handbrake at the Reserve Bank of Australia's next meeting.

Price figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday featured an easing in underlying inflation, to 3.2 per cent, down from 3.5 per cent in October.

Residential electricity bill
Government subsidies for power bill relief has had an impact on inflation figures.

The result took the all-important indicator, which strips out volatility and the temporary downward drag of government energy rebates, back to where it was in September.

At the same time, the headline inflation rate rose in November.

This was widely expected to reflect intricacies in the way power bill relief is doled out to households.

The headline rate inched higher to 2.3 per cent, a touch above expectations and stronger than the 2.1 per cent rise recorded in October.

The chances of a February interest rate cut had improved on the numbers, National Australia Bank senior markets economist Taylor Nugent said.

"Today’s data confirms that the inflation outlook is more benign than the RBA’s November outlook," Mr Nugent wrote in a note.

He highlighted moderating insurance and a fall in new dwelling costs as welcome developments, with the latter the largest single component of the consumer price index.

"Inflation is not a barrier to cuts, but conditions in the labour market are not creating much urgency while the RBA’s forecasts for an acceleration in activity growth remain intact," he said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia
All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia's board meeting in February.

The uptick in job vacancies would keep the RBA board cautious, Moody's Analytics head of China and Australia economics Harry Murphy Cruise said.

The statistics bureau recorded 344,00 open roles in November, a 4.2 per cent lift in job vacancies.

This was the first rise in vacancies since May 2022, when they reached a historic peak.

Mr Murphy Cruise said the rise suggested the labour market was tightening, with firms finding it harder to hire talent.

"Absent the still-strong labour market, a rate cut in February would be warranted," he said.

The central bank will pay extra attention to the more-comprehensive quarterly inflation report, due later in January, in its assessment of price pressures.

The inflation update lands as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese embarks on an unofficial election campaign at a time when the cost of living remains a pressing issue for voters.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Wednesday said "very substantial and sustained progress" had been made in the fight against inflation.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers
Treasurer Jim Chalmers pointed to "very substantial and sustained progress" in the inflation battle.

"Headline inflation has now been in the bottom half of the Reserve Bank’s target band for three months in a row, for the first time since 2021," he told reporters.

Dr Chalmers said it was a "statement of fact" to highlight inflation within the band and not an attempt to nudge the RBA to cut interest rates.

"From my point of view, my focus is on my job, not (RBA) governor (Michele) Bullock's job," he said.

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor took aim at federal electricity bill help, arguing billions of taxpayer dollars had been spent "rigging the numbers rather than addressing inflation at the source".

"Labor has done nothing to address the issues in our energy system," Mr Taylor said. 

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