Inflation numbers key drawcard in data-packed week

Lower inflation is expected to be reflected in the latest retail trade and consumer price indexes. (Diego Fedele/AAP PHOTOS)

Inflation numbers for the final three months of 2023 will set the scene for this year's first cash rate call.

The December quarter consumer price index is expected to come in on the softer side on Wednesday and allow the Reserve Bank to stay on hold when it meets on February 6.

The previous three-monthly reading from the Australian Bureau of Statistics had inflation increasing 5.4 per cent annually through to September, and lifting 1.2 per cent for the quarter.

Black Friday sale sign (file image)
Retail trade data is expected to show a contraction in December due to Black Friday shopping.

The headline figure is tipped to lift 4.3 per cent annually in December and 0.8 per cent quarterly, based on ANZ's economic forecasts, with the bank expecting the trimmed mean to rise 0.9 per cent in the quarter and 4.4 per cent annually. 

Such a result would be lower than the central bank's latest set of forecasts, ANZ economists offered, consistent with the RBA leaving interest rates untouched at 4.35 per cent in February.

The note prepared by head of Australian economics Adam Boyton and other economists at the bank pointed to weakening price and cost pressures in a key business survey as signs of cooling inflation.

"Still, it is too soon to be confident that the battle against inflation is won," they wrote. 

While the consumer price index will be the star of the show, the data-heavy week kicks off with retail trade numbers on Tuesday.

New housing construction (file image)
A slew of housing data is also scheduled for the week, including building approvals.

The December data from the ABS is tracking towards a sharp four per cent contraction in the month, according to Commonwealth Bank predictions, to reflect shifting shopping habits around Black Friday.

"Such an outcome in December would imply only a small increase in retail volumes over the quarter and a softening since the September quarter," CBA economist Stephen Wu wrote in a note.

Other major releases from the bureau include building approvals data and export and import price information, both out on Thursday.

A slew of housing data is also scheduled for the week, starting with home prices from real estate data firm CoreLogic and building approvals from the ABS on Thursday.

On Friday, the bureau is due to release lending indicators, which includes information on housing loans.

Australian shares extended their winning streak to a fifth day on Thursday, with the benchmark S&P/ASX200 finishing up 36.2 points, or 0.48 per cent, to a three-week high of 7555.4.

The broader All Ordinaries rose 37.1 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 7785.2.

The ASX was closed on Friday for the Australia Day public holiday.

License this article

What is AAPNews?

For the first time, Australian Associated Press is delivering news straight to the consumer.

No ads. No spin. News straight-up.

Not only do you get to enjoy high-quality news delivered straight to your desktop or device, you do so in the knowledge you are supporting media diversity in Australia.

AAP Is Australia’s only independent newswire service, free from political and commercial influence, producing fact-based public interest journalism across a range of topics including politics, courts, sport, finance and entertainment.

What is AAPNews?
The Morning Wire

Wake up to AAPNews’ morning news bulletin delivered straight to your inbox or mobile device, bringing you up to speed with all that has happened overnight at home and abroad, as well as setting you up what the day has in store.

AAPNews Morning Wire
AAPNews Breaking News
Breaking News

Be the first to know when major breaking news happens.


Notifications will be sent to your device whenever a big story breaks, ensuring you are never in the dark when the talking points happen.

Focused Content

Enjoy the best of AAP’s specialised Topics in Focus. AAP has reporters dedicated to bringing you hard news and feature content across a range of specialised topics including Environment, Agriculture, Future Economies, Arts and Refugee Issues.

AAPNews Focussed Content
Subscription Plans

Choose the plan that best fits your needs. AAPNews offers two basic subscriptions, all billed monthly.

Once you sign up, you will have seven days to test out the service before being billed.

AAPNews Full Access Plan
Full Access
AU$10
  • Enjoy all that AAPNews has to offer
  • Access to breaking news notifications and bulletins
  • Includes access to all AAPNews’ specialised topics
Join Now
AAPNews Student Access Plan
Student Access
AU$5
  • Gain access via a verified student email account
  • Enjoy all the benefits of the ‘Full Access’ plan at a reduced rate
  • Subscription renews each month
Join Now
AAPNews Annual Access Plan
Annual Access
AU$99
  • All the benefits of the 'Full Access' subscription at a discounted rate
  • Subscription automatically renews after 12 months
Join Now

AAPNews also offers enterprise deals for businesses so you can provide an AAPNews account for your team, organisation or customers. Click here to contact AAP to sign-up your business today.

SEVEN DAYS FREE
Download the app
Download AAPNews on the App StoreDownload AAPNews on the Google Play Store