Job not over: what's next for NDIS after Bill Shorten

He might have one eye on the vice-chancellor's office at the University of Canberra, but outgoing minister Bill Shorten has plenty of unfinished business with the NDIS.

The former prime ministerial hopeful will step down in February after almost three years in one of the most complex and contested portfolios in government.

When he announced his resignation on Thursday, he was hailed from both sides of politics for the energy he brought to the role.

NDIS office
Outgoing NDIS minister Bill Shorten has plenty of work to do to ensure its long-term future.

Mr Shorten was a key architect of the NDIS scheme in the Gillard government more than a decade ago and was determined to make it flourish when he inherited the portfolio in 2022.

But he could not deny the challenges that lay ahead to secure its existence, with ballooning costs and allegations of widespread fraud dogging a system described as "broken" by providers.

From an initial cost estimate of $15 billion per year, the NDIS was projected to cost the public purse more than $50 billion per year by 2025/26, exceeding the annual cost of Medicare.

Mr Shorten said reform was urgently needed.

But he was careful to walk a tightrope between ensuring the financial sustainability of the scheme and reassuring the disability community support would not be pulled out from under them by a government hell-bent on cost-cutting.

Consensus is an elusive thing to find in a sector as broad and diverse as disability, but by and large the industry was not celebrating the news of Mr Shorten's departure.

Disability sector advocate River Night said the response to Mr Shorten's resignation was mixed but he was grateful for his authentic approach to engaging with people at a grassroots level.

Ross Joyce, chief executive of the Australian Federation of Disability Organisations, was disappointed to see Mr Shorten step down in the middle of a significant period of work for the sector.

People in wheelchairs
Disability advocates are waiting to find out who replaces Bill Shorten in the NDIS portfolio.

"He's been a great supporter of the scheme and done a lot of work for people with disability," he told AAP.

But he has not been perfect.

Mr Joyce said recent amendments to the NDIS limiting spending growth to eight per cent per year could have been better handled.

He would like to see greater co-design and consultation from Mr Shorten's replacement and some certainty as to who that would be sooner rather than later.

Whoever ends up replacing Mr Shorten, Mr Joyce said it was vital the role stayed in cabinet, given how much work remained to reform the sector.

Finalising assessment processes and ensuring what supports remained in place were important steps still to be completed after eligibility requirements were tightened up.

Samantha Hunter, chief executive of Occupational Therapy Australia, called on Mr Shorten to use his remaining time in office to reverse the damage from "pugnacious industry commentary" of the scheme.

"Otherwise, his parting gift will be impetuous and reckless changes that cripple the sector and unwind the best intentions of the NDIS," she said.

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