Labour market holding up as job ad levels stabilise

The 1.7 per cent uptick in job ad volumes in January follows a 0.6 per cent lift in December. (Diego Fedele/AAP PHOTOS)

Fresh inflation and jobs market indicators have landed ahead of the first interest rate meeting of the year, where forecasters broadly expect no change. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia board is tipped to keep the cash rate at 4.35 per cent when it meets on Tuesday following weaker-than-expected consumer price index figures.

And inflation is still broadly trending in the right direction based on Melbourne Institute's monthly gauge.

The indicator, which uses the same methodology as the official consumer price index from the Australian Bureau of Statistics but is released on a more timely schedule, recorded a 0.3 per cent increase in January, down from a one per cent lift in December.

On an annual basis, the gauge has consumer prices growing by 4.6 per cent, stronger than the latest consumer price index but much lower than the 5.2 per cent annual read through to December.

Separate job ad figures from ANZ and Indeed figures point to resilience in the labour market. 

The duo have recorded two consecutive months of increasing job ad numbers in a sign of growing demand for workers.

The 1.7 per cent uptick in job ad volumes in January follows a 0.6 per cent lift in December.

ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said the stabilisation of job ad volumes at still-elevated levels was a sign of resilience in the labour market.

Job ads in the series were still 39.9 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels, despite falling 15.5 per cent from the November 2022 peak.

She said there was no doubt the labour market was softening but a significant downturn was not anticipated any time soon.

Other markers of health in the jobs market, including official labour force data, point to easing but still-strong conditions.

In December, the jobless rate held at 3.9 per cent, still low compared to historical norms but above the record lows of 3.4 per cent observed in late 2022.

Businesses are also still reporting labour as a constraint on their output.

The latest trade figures show the goods trade balance remained elevated at $11 billion in December, slightly below the November print of $11.8 billion.

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