National leader Chris Luxon has claimed victory in a New Zealand election that shifts the country to the right, ending six years of Labour-led government.
"You have reached for hope and you have voted for change," Mr Luxon told an ecstatic crowd in Auckland on Saturday night.
"We have splashed blue across the country.
"National is in a position to lead the next government and my pledge to you is that my government will lead for every New Zealander."
With 91 per cent of the preliminary vote counted, National was sitting on 39.4 per cent, with Labour on 26.6 per cent.
Mr Luxon, a former Air New Zealand chief executive, will become prime minister, completing a remarkable turnaround for the first-term MP.
National campaigned on tax relief, a crackdown on crime, and public service cuts.
While a change of government is clear, what remains in the balance is the make-up of National's coalition - and the scale of Labour's devastation.
Mr Hipkins told supporters in Wellington that despite the party's biggest-ever grassroots campaign, "unfortunately the results tonight show that wasn't enough".
"Earlier this evening I called Christopher Luxon to congratulate him on National's results," he said.
"Labour is not in a position to form another government."
Polls in the lead-up to election day suggested National would win the contest but would need support from two minor parties - ACT and New Zealand First - to govern.
Results so far suggest National might only need its preferred partner, right-wing libertarian party ACT, which sits on 9.2 per cent.
Mr Luxon told supporters in Auckland he believed National and ACT could govern alone.
That could leave Winston Peters, the wily 78-year-old populist, out in the cold of opposition despite NZ First sitting on 6.4 per cent of the vote, and on track to return to parliament.
Mr Peters said the party had "done the impossible".
"When we first said a few years ago that we were going to make a comeback they laughed at us," he said in Russell.
"Well, they're not laughing now are they?"
Labour's party vote has crashed from a record 50 per cent in 2020, with the party set to lose seats it has held for generations.
National candidate Melissa Lee leads in Mt Albert - an inner Auckland electorate held by Jacinda Ardern and Helen Clark and by Labour since 1946.
Other senior MPs such as Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta, Police Minister Ginny Andersen and Local Government Minister Kieran McAnulty were staring at losses.
"It's a bloodbath," National pollster David Farrar told AAP.
With 91 per cent of the vote counted, the combined right bloc was sitting on 54.9 per cent, with the left on 39.8 per cent.
The right's vote could soften slightly with the addition of special votes in the final count, confirmed on November 3.
The Greens are on track to grow their MPs, sitting on 10.4 per cent, but are bound for opposition given the collapse of the overall left vote.
The Maori Party is on 2.5 per cent, leading in four of the Maori electorates and on track to double its parliamentary representation.
Voters have rejected Labour's campaign for a third term under new leader Mr Hipkins, who succeeded Ms Ardern in January.
"It's a blue-nami," broadcaster Paddy Gower declared.
The six-week election campaign - dubbed the battle of the Chrises - was a negative contest, with National attacking Labour's record and Labour attacking National's policy prescriptions.
NEW ZEALAND ELECTION - PRELIMINARY RESULTS AFTER 91 PER CENT VOTE COUNTED
National - 39.4 per cent (up from 25.6 per cent in 2020) - likely 50 MPs
Labour - 26.6 per cent (down from 50 per cent) - likely 34 MPs
Greens - 10.7 per cent (up from 7.9 per cent) - likely 13 MPs
ACT - 9.1 per cent (up from 7.6 per cent) - likely 12 MPs
NZ First - 6.4 per cent (up from 2.5 per cent) - likely 8 MPs
Maori Party - 2.5 per cent (up from 1.1 per cent) - likely 4 MPs
