Polling indicates the opposition is cruising towards victory in the Queensland election but the Liberal National Party leader believes history is not on his side.
While the election campaign officially starts on Tuesday, the LNP is already on track to end the Labor government's nine year reign at the October 26 poll.
Polling by Freshwater Strategy published in the Australian Financial Review on Monday had the LNP leading Labor by 56 per cent to 44 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.
However, LNP leader David Crisafulli says he's not taking anything for granted.
"We remain the underdog," he said.
"History will show ... of the last 12 general elections the Labor Party won 11 - they (Labor) expect Queenslanders to just keep voting for them.
"We have to work hard and earn that trust."
The government will go into caretaker mode on Tuesday when Premier Steven Miles visits Governor Jeannette Young to officially start the election process.
The latest poll indicates a nine per cent swing since Labor's Annastacia Palaszczuk claimed a third term as premier in 2020.
"There's nothing new in that poll ... that suggests that David Crisafulli could have an easy run to becoming the state's premier," said Mr Miles, who took over as premier after Ms Palaszczuk's tearful December 2023 resignation.
"He thinks this election is going to be easy, but we've barely even started, and with four weeks to go I can assure you that this election will be much, much harder for him than he realises."
Queensland would become the second state or territory to remove a Labor government from power in 2024 after the Country Liberal Party won office in the Northern Territory in August.
Mr Miles marked his last official day in power ahead of the election with a slew of announcements, making almost $5 billion in spending promises.
"I'm seeking a first term as Queensland's premier," Mr Miles said.
"I want four years in my own right to deliver on the kinds of policies, the vision that I have for our state, and I've sought to use the 10 months I've had in this role to show Queenslanders who I am and what I would do.
"I will be seeking from them a mandate for a vision for our state, a vision that I will outline over the next 27 days."
The Labor government has taken aim at the opposition for not releasing costings ahead of an election that looks set to be decided on four key issues - youth crime, health, housing and cost-of-living pressures.
The opposition leader was also on the campaign trail on Monday, announcing a $100 million funding pledge with a focus on reducing juvenile crime.
Half of the funding will grow proven community-led programs while the other $50 million will kick-start new early intervention programs subject to strict key performance indicators and regular reporting.
"We have to win more than a dozen seats, we start well behind the eight ball," the LNP leader told reporters in Cairns.
"(But) I think Queenslanders know that it is time for a fresh start. If they want change they will have to vote for it."
