The water cycle once taught to children through catchy songs and colourful cartoons, has profoundly changed and now fuels some of the world's worst natural disasters, a study has found.
A record for the hottest year was set in 2023 as heatwaves swept across the globe, shattering previous highs and leaving megadroughts, bushfires and a seemingly constant cycle of cyclones in their wake.
The Global Water Monitor Report, led by researchers from the Australian National University, has found these disasters are caused by the impact of extreme heat on the water cycle - as the increasing frequency of extreme dry and extreme wet conditions and unprecedented weather events aligned with ongoing changes in the water cycle over the last 20 years.
Lead author Albert Van Dijk says continued fossil fuel burning has led to rising sea surface and air temperatures, exacerbating the strength and rainfall intensity of monsoons, cyclones and other storm systems.
"The events of 2023 show how ongoing climate change is threatening our planets and lives more with every passing year," Professor Van Dijk said.
When Cyclone Jasper battered northern Queensland in December, it delivered torrential rains and widespread flooding because it moved much slower than expected, while a similar event in southeastern Africa became the longest-lived cyclone after churning up the region for weeks.
"The recent cyclones and intensive storms in Queensland and elsewhere in Australia should not be seen as isolated freak events but part of a global pattern that was quite clear," he said.
"Warmer sea temperatures fuelled those freak behaviours and we can expect to see more of these extreme events going forward."
On the other side of the climate coin, changes to the water cycle have also led to more frequent and faster developing droughts, which Prof Van Dijk says can cause crop failure and destructive wildfires in a matter of weeks of months.
"With the global food challenge, biodiversity crisis and an extremely urgent need to reduce carbon emissions, these droughts and wildfires are among our greatest global threats."
According to former ACT Emergency Services Authority commissioner Peter Dunn, these weather events have already made things more difficult for emergency services.
"On the most severe days, the sheer number of fires makes it impossible to combat them all, putting first responders at risk," Major General Dunn said.
"The kind of extreme heatwaves we’re likely to experience in the future, not only intensifies any fires that start, making them hotter and more difficult to control, but it also strains the capabilities of our emergency services to their limits."
With 2024 projected to be even hotter than the previous year, scientists including Climate Council research director Simon Bradshaw say things need to change now.
"We can’t keep stoking the fire if we want the room to cool down," Dr Bradshaw said.
"We must limit future warming as much as possible by getting our emissions down fast by rapidly phasing out the burning of fossil fuels."
