Tax cuts, rates chatter to play into consumer sentiment

Consumer confidence has been subdued as a result of the higher interest rates. (Paul Miller/AAP PHOTOS)

Higher mortgage repayments, rents and other elevated living costs have been dampening spirits and keeping consumer confidence subdued.

The latest survey from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute on Tuesday is unlikely to show much of an improvement in consumer mood, AMP Australia chief economist Shane Oliver said.

"(The consumer sentiment index) is likely to remain weak and could fall again following increased talk of another rate hike, although this may be partly offset by high media coverage around the tax cuts," he said.

Stronger-than-expected monthly inflation data for May stirred up speculation interest rates might need to stay elevated for longer or even rise further to tackle persistent price pressures.

Soup bowls on a shop counter.
Inflation has remained persistently sticky, driving up the cost of living.

The latest retail trade numbers were also on the hot side, although the numbers were likely pushed higher by people taking advantage of early financial year sales rather than consumers feeling compelled to splash out.

Dr Oliver was still of the view interest rates had peaked and the next move would be down, namely because the Reserve Bank of Australia "needed to be very wary of doing too much".

A check-in on the business sector is also expected on Tuesday when the National Australia Bank releases its monthly survey. 

Businesses have been reporting a gradual decline in conditions as the economy slows in response to higher interest rates and global headwinds.

Australian Bureau of Statistics data releases include lending indicators on Monday, the monthly business turnover indicator on Wednesday and overseas arrivals and departures on Friday.

A panel appearance from the RBA's head of economic research, John Simon, could also contain useful details about the central bank's view of the economy. 

Mr Simon is scheduled to speak at the Australian Conference of Economists in Adelaide on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Australian stock exchange is expected to open mixed on Monday, after Wall Street finished firmer on Friday amid heightened expectations of interest rate cuts as early as September.

The US Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 67.87 points, or 0.17 per cent, to close at 39,375.87. The S&P 500 gained 30.17 points, or 0.54 per cent, at 5,567.19 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 164.46 points, or 0.90 per cent, to 18,352.76.

US Labor Department data showed US jobs growth slowed marginally in June, and the unemployment rate rose to an over two-and-a-half-year high while wage gains slowed.

Investors expect the data could stir more active debate on rate cuts when the Federal Reserve meets later this month. 

The odds of the US central bank easing in September jumped to 79 per cent, from 66 per cent before the data was released.

The key Australian SPI200 futures contract lost 11 points to 7996 points on the weekend, paving the way for a choppy start to the week as investors mull the potential timing of domestic interest rate cuts.

On Friday, the local bourse ended lower with the  S&P/ASX200 index closing 9.5 points, or 0.12 per cent, lower at 7,822.3, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 9.0 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,070.1.

License this article

What is AAPNews?

For the first time, Australian Associated Press is delivering news straight to the consumer.

No ads. No spin. News straight-up.

Not only do you get to enjoy high-quality news delivered straight to your desktop or device, you do so in the knowledge you are supporting media diversity in Australia.

AAP Is Australia’s only independent newswire service, free from political and commercial influence, producing fact-based public interest journalism across a range of topics including politics, courts, sport, finance and entertainment.

What is AAPNews?
The Morning Wire

Wake up to AAPNews’ morning news bulletin delivered straight to your inbox or mobile device, bringing you up to speed with all that has happened overnight at home and abroad, as well as setting you up what the day has in store.

AAPNews Morning Wire
AAPNews Breaking News
Breaking News

Be the first to know when major breaking news happens.


Notifications will be sent to your device whenever a big story breaks, ensuring you are never in the dark when the talking points happen.

Focused Content

Enjoy the best of AAP’s specialised Topics in Focus. AAP has reporters dedicated to bringing you hard news and feature content across a range of specialised topics including Environment, Agriculture, Future Economies, Arts and Refugee Issues.

AAPNews Focussed Content
Subscription Plans

Choose the plan that best fits your needs. AAPNews offers two basic subscriptions, all billed monthly.

Once you sign up, you will have seven days to test out the service before being billed.

AAPNews Full Access Plan
Full Access
AU$10
  • Enjoy all that AAPNews has to offer
  • Access to breaking news notifications and bulletins
  • Includes access to all AAPNews’ specialised topics
Join Now
AAPNews Student Access Plan
Student Access
AU$5
  • Gain access via a verified student email account
  • Enjoy all the benefits of the ‘Full Access’ plan at a reduced rate
  • Subscription renews each month
Join Now
AAPNews Annual Access Plan
Annual Access
AU$99
  • All the benefits of the 'Full Access' subscription at a discounted rate
  • Subscription automatically renews after 12 months
Join Now

AAPNews also offers enterprise deals for businesses so you can provide an AAPNews account for your team, organisation or customers. Click here to contact AAP to sign-up your business today.

SEVEN DAYS FREE
Download the app
Download AAPNews on the App StoreDownload AAPNews on the Google Play Store