Watching for doves in Reserve Bank's Christmas reveal

Minutes of the last Reserve Bank meeting will be scoured for clues on interest rates. (Bianca De Marchi/AAP PHOTOS)

Rate watchers will be hoping the Reserve Bank has left them an early present in meeting minutes released on Christmas eve.

The RBA kept rates on hold at its December meeting but a dovish tilt detected in its commentary raised expectations relief for mortgage holders could come at its first meeting of 2025.

Speaking to media following the decision, Governor Michele Bullock confirmed the board had made a deliberate shift in language to reflect "mixed" economic data "that was, on balance, a bit softer than we had expected".

Gone from the bank's statement was the threat that it was "not ruling anything in or out" when it came to another rate rise.

Market expectations for a rate cut shot up in response.

Bond traders have priced in a more than a two-thirds chance the RBA board will cut the cash rate by 25 basis points when it returns from holidays in February.

But expectations of a cut were wound back two days after the December meeting, when the unemployment rate surprisingly fell from 4.1 per cent to 3.9 per cent.

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock.
Michele Bullock says ongoing tightness in the jobs market is a prime concern for the central bank.

Ms Bullock has stated that ongoing tightness in the jobs market was a prime concern for the central bank, weighing against it easing rates earlier.

"We’ll be interested to see how the RBA was viewing the labour market and the extent to which a sub-four per cent unemployment rate might temper the dovish shift by the board at its December meeting," ANZ economists Adam Boyton, Catherine Birch, Adelaide Timbrell, Madeline Dunk and Sophia Angala said in a research note.

Three of the big four banks expect the Reserve Bank to hand down its first cut in May, while the Commonwealth Bank still holds out hope for February.

A money box.
Increased expectations of an impending RBA rate cut would further weaken the Australian dollar,

Increased expectations of an impending RBA rate cut would further weaken the Australian dollar, which fell past the 62 US cent mark for the first time since October 2022 after the US Federal Reserve revealed a more hawkish outlook for 2025.

US stocks rallied to close out the trading week on Friday after two lacklustre sessions as a cooler-than-expected inflation report and comments from Federal Reserve officials eased worries about the path of interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 498.82 points, or 1.18 per cent, to 42,841.06, the S&P 500 gained 63.82 points, or 1.09 per cent, to 5,930.90 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 199.83 points, or 1.03 per cent, to 19,572.60.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.99 per cent, the Nasdaq declined 1.78 per cent, and the Dow dropped 2.25 per cent.

Australian futures rose 13 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 8079.0.

The Australian share market dropped sharply for a second day to close at its worst level in 100 days and suffer its second-worst weekly performance of the year. 

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday fell 101.2 points, or 1.24 per cent, 8,067, its lowest close since September 11.

The broader All Ordinaries fell 97.9 points, or 1.16 per cent, to 8,317.1.

License this article

What is AAPNews?

For the first time, Australian Associated Press is delivering news straight to the consumer.

No ads. No spin. News straight-up.

Not only do you get to enjoy high-quality news delivered straight to your desktop or device, you do so in the knowledge you are supporting media diversity in Australia.

AAP Is Australia’s only independent newswire service, free from political and commercial influence, producing fact-based public interest journalism across a range of topics including politics, courts, sport, finance and entertainment.

What is AAPNews?
The Morning Wire

Wake up to AAPNews’ morning news bulletin delivered straight to your inbox or mobile device, bringing you up to speed with all that has happened overnight at home and abroad, as well as setting you up what the day has in store.

AAPNews Morning Wire
AAPNews Breaking News
Breaking News

Be the first to know when major breaking news happens.


Notifications will be sent to your device whenever a big story breaks, ensuring you are never in the dark when the talking points happen.

Focused Content

Enjoy the best of AAP’s specialised Topics in Focus. AAP has reporters dedicated to bringing you hard news and feature content across a range of specialised topics including Environment, Agriculture, Future Economies, Arts and Refugee Issues.

AAPNews Focussed Content
Subscription Plans

Choose the plan that best fits your needs. AAPNews offers two basic subscriptions, all billed monthly.

Once you sign up, you will have seven days to test out the service before being billed.

AAPNews Full Access Plan
Full Access
AU$10
  • Enjoy all that AAPNews has to offer
  • Access to breaking news notifications and bulletins
  • Includes access to all AAPNews’ specialised topics
Join Now
AAPNews Student Access Plan
Student Access
AU$5
  • Gain access via a verified student email account
  • Enjoy all the benefits of the ‘Full Access’ plan at a reduced rate
  • Subscription renews each month
Join Now
AAPNews Annual Access Plan
Annual Access
AU$99
  • All the benefits of the 'Full Access' subscription at a discounted rate
  • Subscription automatically renews after 12 months
Join Now

AAPNews also offers enterprise deals for businesses so you can provide an AAPNews account for your team, organisation or customers. Click here to contact AAP to sign-up your business today.

SEVEN DAYS FREE
Download the app
Download AAPNews on the App StoreDownload AAPNews on the Google Play Store