Post-election coalition intrigue in New Zealand

New Zealanders must wait to learn the shape of their next government, as election winners National focus on building chemistry rather than a coalition.

Chris Luxon's National party are certain to govern after turfing Labour from office with a huge swing in the October 14 poll.

However, preliminary results show Mr Luxon's National does not have a parliamentary majority with preferred coalition partner ACT, and are likely to need New Zealand First in a governing arrangement.

"There's a possibility there's going to be a third person in this marriage as Diana once said," ACT leader David Seymour told Newstalk ZB on Monday morning.

The election results are not final until an estimated 570,000 "special votes" - predominantly out-of-electorate and overseas voters - are added into the mix on November 3.

Mr Luxon says that's when he will look to finalise his government.

"I want to work respectfully with each of the political parties that are involved. We're going to form a strong stable government. That's really important," he told TVNZ.

"We ultimately have to wait until we've got clarity over the special votes."

Special votes usually favour parties of the left, and if that trend holds, NZ First's numbers will be needed.

On Sunday, National campaign chair Chris Bishop said his expectation was his party would lose a seat in the final tally.

If National or ACT could buck that trend and gain a seat or two, Mr Luxon confirmed the pair would attempt to govern with a tiny majority.

"If we can do it alone then we will," he told Newstalk ZB.

In the meantime, he said all three parties were engaged "relationship-building".

"It’s about getting the chemistry right," he said.

"Having done a lot of negotiations in my life, if you've got a good strong relationship and chemistry, then you can actually work through the transactional issues."

That relationship-building should be centred on Mr Luxon and Winston Peters, the leader of NZ First.

Mr Luxon and ACT leader Mr Seymour have met regularly in opposition, talked several times on election day, and are neighbours in Auckland's affluent eastern suburbs.

However, Mr Luxon memorably told a leaders debate he "didn't know" Mr Peters, who at 78 has been a fixture of Kiwi politics for more than four decades.

“Everyone knows him, he’s Winston Peters!” debate moderator Paddy Gower exclaimed in response.

Mr Peters is a wily negotiator, using the kingmaker position at previous elections to extract maximum value.

In 2017, he became deputy prime minister and foreign minister after siding with Jacinda Ardern's Labour.

Veteran Kiwi journalist Richard Harman reported on Monday that Mr Peters had been offered the speakership via National back channels, but he rejected it.

Mr Luxon and Mr Peters have not yet met, and Mr Peters has suggested he is in no hurry to be part of the relationship-building.

In a social media post on Monday, he thanked  supporters and said "we will have to wait until the special votes" to "continue work on the formation of the next government".

The prolonged time frame will make it hard for Mr Luxon to land his ambitious targets to hit the ground running.

The party wants to release a "mini-budget" before Christmas and has released a first 100 days plan - though that timer won't start ticking down until ministers are sworn in.

Mr Luxon also has international engagements very swiftly after results are confirmed on November 3.

The Pacific Islands Forum meets in Cook Islands from November 6-10, while US President Joe Biden is hosting the APEC leaders summit in San Francisco from November 15-17.

Mr Luxon also told AAP he wanted his first international trip to be to meet Anthony Albanese, saying ties with Australia was New Zealand's "most important relationship".

In a press conference on Monday afternoon, Mr Luxon admitted he may not be able to meet those commitments.

"Look, we'll have to see, that's the reality of it," he said.

"That'll ultimately be determined by how the negotiations go."

License this article

What is AAPNews?

For the first time, Australian Associated Press is delivering news straight to the consumer.

No ads. No spin. News straight-up.

Not only do you get to enjoy high-quality news delivered straight to your desktop or device, you do so in the knowledge you are supporting media diversity in Australia.

AAP Is Australia’s only independent newswire service, free from political and commercial influence, producing fact-based public interest journalism across a range of topics including politics, courts, sport, finance and entertainment.

What is AAPNews?
The Morning Wire

Wake up to AAPNews’ morning news bulletin delivered straight to your inbox or mobile device, bringing you up to speed with all that has happened overnight at home and abroad, as well as setting you up what the day has in store.

AAPNews Morning Wire
AAPNews Breaking News
Breaking News

Be the first to know when major breaking news happens.


Notifications will be sent to your device whenever a big story breaks, ensuring you are never in the dark when the talking points happen.

Focused Content

Enjoy the best of AAP’s specialised Topics in Focus. AAP has reporters dedicated to bringing you hard news and feature content across a range of specialised topics including Environment, Agriculture, Future Economies, Arts and Refugee Issues.

AAPNews Focussed Content
Subscription Plans

Choose the plan that best fits your needs. AAPNews offers two basic subscriptions, all billed monthly.

Once you sign up, you will have seven days to test out the service before being billed.

AAPNews Full Access Plan
Full Access
AU$10
  • Enjoy all that AAPNews has to offer
  • Access to breaking news notifications and bulletins
  • Includes access to all AAPNews’ specialised topics
Join Now
AAPNews Student Access Plan
Student Access
AU$5
  • Gain access via a verified student email account
  • Enjoy all the benefits of the ‘Full Access’ plan at a reduced rate
  • Subscription renews each month
Join Now
AAPNews Annual Access Plan
Annual Access
AU$99
  • All the benefits of the 'Full Access' subscription at a discounted rate
  • Subscription automatically renews after 12 months
Join Now

AAPNews also offers enterprise deals for businesses so you can provide an AAPNews account for your team, organisation or customers. Click here to contact AAP to sign-up your business today.

SEVEN DAYS FREE
Download the app
Download AAPNews on the App StoreDownload AAPNews on the Google Play Store